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LIPRO multistate projection model

Changes in household structure may have profound consequences for a wide range of areas in demography and social policy. Household projection models developed in demography over the past few decades are primarily of the headship rate type, in which the dynamic processes of household formation and dissolution which underlie changes in household structure, essentially are treated as a black box. Back in 1988, NIDI started a pioneering study in order to develop a dynamic household projection model which explicitly focusses on the flows underlying household changes. The model, called LIPRO ('LIfestyle PROjections'), is based on the methodology of multistate demography, but includes several extensions to solve the particular problems of household modelling.

Although originally developed for household projections, the LIPRO computer program can in fact be used for a wide range of calculations in multistate demography. And indeed, LIPRO has been extensively used for various applications, in the Netherlands as well as in many other countries.

LIPRO 4.0, which is the first LIPRO version for Windows, is available for release since Spring 1999. It includes all the usual MicroSoft Windows facilities for user interface and data exchange. Communication with MicroSoft Excel has explicitly been incorporared. In addition, the full documentation is available within the program via Help, including the extensive tutorial materials. The tutorial, including the accompanying data and other input files, contains a detailed description of a marital-status exercise that can be used for familiarizing oneself with multidimensional demography in general and with its implementation in the LIPRO program in particular.

LIPRO 4.0 for Windows

LIPRO 4.0 for Windows is available free of charge. However, the software is provided "as is". No support or maintenance is provided with the software. The main conditions for the use of LIPRO 4.0 for Windows are:

  • LIPRO 4.0 for Windows is the property of NIDI, which holds the full right, title and interest in and to the copyright of LIPRO 4.0 for Windows. NIDI is not obliged to offer any (technical) support.
  • It is not allowed, without written permission of NIDI, to distribute, license, or otherwise transfer LIPRO 4.0 for Windows to any other individual or institution; alter, modify, enhance or otherwise change LIPRO 4.0 for Windows; or use LIPRO 4.0 for Windows in conjunction with any other computer software.
  • NIDI will not be liable for any indirect, special or consequential damages in connection with or arising from the provision of, performance of or use of LIPRO 4.0 for Windows.
  • NIDI requests that if LIPRO 4.0 for Windows is used as the basis for any reports, publications and presentations, proper references is made to LIPRO 4.0 for Windows and its related publications.

LIPRO applications

Some examples of international studies using LIPRO applications can be found below:

Belgium - LIPRO household typology

Willaert, D. & J. Surkyn (2008),
Bevolkings- en huishoudensprojecties, en schatting van de toekomstige woningvoorraad in het Brussels Hoofdstedelijk Gewest. Interface Demography Working Paper 2008-5, Brussel: Vrije Universiteit. 175 p. [pdf]

China - population projections Shanghai

Peng, X. & Y. Cheng (2005),
Demographic bonus and the impact of migration: the case of Shanghai. Working Paper 2005-12, Kitakyushu: International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development. 22 p. [pdf]

England & Wales - marital status projections

Office for National Statistics (2009),
2006-based marital status projections for England & Wales. [pdf]
Office for National Statistics (2009),
2006-based marital status projections for England & Wales: Method of projection. [pdf]
Office for National Statistics (2010),
2008-based marital status population projections. [pdf]
Office for National Statistics (2010),
Marital status population projections, 2008-based. Statistical Bulletin. [pdf]
Wilson, B. (2009),
Estimating the cohabiting population. Population Trends 33 (136): 21-27. [pdf]

European Union

Economic Policy Committee & the European Commission (2006),
The 2005 projections of age-related expenditure (2004-50) for the EU-25 Member States: underlying assumptions and projection methodologies. European Economy, Special Report 4/2005, Luxembourg: Office des publications officielles des Communautés européennes [pdf]
Gaag, N. van der, E. van Imhoff & L. van Wissen (2000),
Internal migration scenarios and regional population projections for the European Union. International Journal of Population Geography 6 (1): 1-19. [pdf]
Kalogirou, S. & M. Murphy (2006),
Marital Status of people aged 75 and over in nine EU countries in the period 2000-2030. European Journal of Ageing 3 (2): 74-81. [pdf]

Netherlands - household projections

Duin, C. van & C. Harmsen (2009),
Een nieuw model voor de CBS huishoudensprognose. Bevolkingstrends, statistisch kwartaalblad over de demografie van Nederland 57 (3): 20-42. [pdf]
Ekamper, P. & E. van Imhoff (1994),
1989-based dynamic household scenarios for the Netherlands: sensitivity analysis of the LIPRO model. NIDI report nr. 38. The Hague: NIDI. [pdf]

Netherlands - labour market / manpower projections

Ekamper, P. (1997),
Future age-conscious manpower planning in the Netherlands: from early retirement to a new perspective on the elderly? International Journal of Manpower 18 (3): 232-247. [pdf]
Imhoff, E. van & K. Henkens (1998),
The budgetary dilemmas of an ageing workforce: a scenario study of the public sector in the Netherlands. European Journal of Population 14 (1): 39-59. [pdf]

Norway - household projections

Alho, J. & N. Keilman (2010),
On future household structure. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 173 (1): 117-143. [pdf]
Keilman, N. & S. Christiansen (2010),
Norwegian elderly less likely to live alone in the future. European Journal of Population 26 (1): 47-72. [pdf]
Keilman, N. & H. Brunborg (1995),
Household projections for Norway, 1990-2020; part I: macrosimulations. Report 95/21, Oslo: Statistics Norway. 82 p. [pdf]

Poland - marital status projections

Kotowska, I.E. (1991),
Application of the LIPRO model for projection of Poland's population by marital status and place of residence. Studia Demograficzne 106 (4): 3-26. [pdf]

Spain - population projections Catalonia

Farré Mallofré, M. & J.A. Sánchez Cepeda (1999),
Mètodes i models per projectar els components del canvi demogràfic en les projeccions de població de l'Institut d'Estadística de Catalunya. Qüestiió 23 (1): 129-152. [pdf]

Download LIPRO 4.0 for Windows

By downloading the LIPRO 4.0 for Windows software you accept the conditions for the use of LIPRO 4.0 for Windows.

To get a copy of LIPRO 4.0 for Windows please download the software from here:

Please acknowledge the software is provided "as is". No support or maintenance is provided with the software!

The original version of LIPRO was published in 1991 together with a book, describing the methodological background as well as an extensive concrete application. This book is no longer in print. However, a PDF version can be downloaded: 

Imhoff, E. van & N. Keilman (1991), LIPRO 2.0: an application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the Netherlands. NIDI/CBGS Pubications nr. 23, Amsterdam/Lisse: Swets & Zeitlinger. 245 p. [pdf]


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