Strand: Population projections and models

The focus of this research strand is the development of population projections and models. In order to improve the quality of population projections broken down by various characteristics, NIDI research focuses on the development and application of multistate models. In these models the distribution of people among so-called states (marital status, employment status, health status etc.) is the outcome of transitions people make in their life course. Multistate models are 'dynamic' models: individuals move between states (e.g. from being single to married, from healthy to unhealthy) and as a consequence the structure of the population changes. A major advantage of dynamic models is that they reflect more closely the process of demographic change in the real world. As a result, they are better suited for integrated population projections and for assessing the impact of behavioural change on population dynamics. As multistate models project the population on the basis of transitions that individuals make in life, such models fit well in the NIDI strategy where the life course approach is central to explaining demographic behaviour.

NIDI has extensive experience in developing multistate models. Current and future research activities focus on the application and further development of the multistate models LIPRO and MicMac. In 2011 population scenarios will be calculated for 11 Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries. In 2012 population and household scenarios for all EU countries will be made at both the national and regional level as part of the new NEUJOBS project.