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Project [concluded]

Scenarios multi-ethnic society and immigration

The objective of the project is to develop scenarios for the Dutch multi-ethnic society for the period 2009-2040 and derive estimates of selected indicators of integration for selected ethnic groups.

A conceptual model of nested scenarios is developed based on different assumptions about future economic development, migration and integration policy agendas, and immigrant acculturation behaviour. In addition to the traditional immigrant groups from Turkey, Morocco, Surinam and the Netherlands Antilles, scenarios are developed for new immigrant groups, such as those originating from new EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe. Apart from estimating the future size and composition of these groups, indicators of integration are derived. Use is made of quantitative data such as data compiled and published by Statistics Netherlands, and qualitative data derived from panel discussions with representatives of the Dutch scientific community, planning agencies, ministries and migrant organizations.


Groenewold, W.G.F. & J.A.A. de Beer (2011),
Vier toekomstscenario's voor de multi-etnische samenleving. Demos, bulletin over bevolking en samenleving 27 (1): 1-6. [pdf]
Groenewold, G. & J. de Beer (2010),
Scenariostudie ontwikkeling multi-etnische samenleving tot 2040, met bijzondere aandacht voor MOE-landers, Deelrapport 1: Traject "Prognoses". Onderzoeksrapport voor het ministerie van VROM-WWI. Den Haag: NIDI, 118 p. [pdf]
Groenewold, G. & J. de Beer (2010),
Toekomstverkenning allochtonen uit Midden- en Oost-Europa (MOE-landen), Onderzoeksrapport voor het ministerie van VROM-WWI. Den Haag: NIDI, 18 p. [pdf]

Research team

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